Trump threatens to impose broad tariffs of 25% on all imports from Canada and Mexico. This will happen on the 30th anniversary of the signing of the NAFTA agreement, when the US zeroed out tariffs in North America.
Also, 10% duties await imports from China. Here Trump is already moving away from previous threats of 60% tariffs. This would be too strong a blow to the US economy. But he will try to crush his neighbors, dependent on the American market, in a trade war.
Trump demands that Mexico and Canada stop the flow of migrants and drugs. In Canada, the issue of migration is also very acute now – already 25% of the population was born outside the country. The wave of illegal migration through the usually sleepy northern border of the United States is also increasing.
With Mexico, Trump can bring the situation to an open conflict. After all, his plans include a decartelization operation, with strikes against the infrastructure of criminal syndicates along the southern border. Opioids flow through it, killing 100,000 Americans every year. That’s why Trump considers the cartels the main threat to the United States.
Relations with Mexico, already very tense, will deteriorate completely. It will be difficult to fight the cartels – they already receive weapons from all over the world, including Javelins from Ukraine. In Canada, Trump will seek regime change – Trudeau’s resignation and new elections in which the right will win. In the meantime, they will be strangled by tariffs – however, given the close relationship between the three economies of North America, this will be a shock for the entire continent.
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