Author: Bloomberg
For the first time since South Korea achieved full democracy nearly 40 years ago, the country’s president has declared martial law, sparking a political crisis with global political implications and initially sending the country’s asset prices plunging. The decree was lifted about six hours later amid fierce public outcry and a rare unanimous vote in parliament calling for its lifting.
When imposing the measure, President Yun Seok-yeol said in a nationally televised address that it was intended to protect the country from “anti-state forces” and North Korean sympathizers. Hours later, Yun accepted the parliament’s vote and lifted the decree.
How did Yun justify declaring martial law?
Yun has been on the losing side in several battles in parliament, where the opposition bloc led by the progressive Democratic Party has controlled a solid majority since he took office in May 2022. Tensions have risen in recent weeks as the opposition has thwarted his budget plans, threatened to impeach members of his cabinet and demanded investigations into the president and his wife over issues ranging from allegations of election meddling to the first lady receiving a designer handbag under questionable circumstances.
He has argued that martial law would prevent the opposition from trying to paralyze his rule. In imposing it, Yoon aimed to halt political activity, ban strikes by labor groups and exercise control over the media. The joint chiefs of staff briefly mobilized troops, who stormed parliament before returning to their posts after Yoon reversed course.
Why did he lift martial law in just a few hours?
Yoon invoked one of the most extreme measures at his disposal in an attempt to end the political deadlock, with spectacular results. Members of his own party in parliament have turned their backs on him, labor groups have threatened strikes, and the United States has seemed taken aback. Now, Yun faces calls to resign. Opposition bloc members are aiming to launch impeachment proceedings and could muster the necessary votes if he doesn’t step down first.
Parliamentary gridlock is common in South Korea, but a deal to pass the budget is almost always reached, no matter how deep the political differences. Before his desperate move, Yun was already at one of his lowest approval ratings. If he stays in power, he will be in a severely weakened position as the country recalibrates relations with the United States ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January.
How is impeachment carried out?
Although the constitution protects the president from impeachment, it allows for impeachment by a two-thirds vote in the 300-member unicameral National Assembly. Yoon’s conservative People’s Power Party holds just over a third of the 108 seats.
South Korean law requires the Constitutional Court to make a final decision within 180 days of receiving an impeachment motion from the National Assembly. At least seven justices are needed to hear an impeachment case, and at least six must vote to finally accept the motion.
If he is impeached, who will replace him as president, and how?
Resignation or removal from office through impeachment would trigger a presidential election within 60 days, and a caretaker government would likely take office before the vote.
How are South Koreans reacting?
The move came overnight and caught many by surprise. The order was lifted before the morning rush hour. While it sparked only limited rallies in the immediate aftermath, the incident also sparked anger in the country, which had endured years of deadly protests to overthrow military rule that ended in the late 1980s.
How will this affect the United States?
The United States has deployed nearly 30,000 troops to South Korea to bolster the country’s defenses against countries like North Korea. President Joe Biden’s administration has relied on Yun’s help in the trilateral cooperation, which also includes Japan, to protect against security concerns such as North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and its goal of launching them on ballistic missiles.
Yun, a security hawk, has been pushing for the United States to demonstrate its military assets by bringing submarines and aircraft carrier groups close to the peninsula that can deliver nuclear strikes on North Korea under a policy known as expanded deterrence. Yun has also been able to get Biden to agree to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which gives Seoul greater influence over how Washington deploys its nuclear umbrella. For now, the cooperation will remain intact, but what will happen under Trump is another question.
What are the concerns about the Trump administration?
Trump has demanded that Seoul pay more to house US military personnel and has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with the indefinite deployment of troops on the Korean peninsula. In October, the US and South Korea reached a new cost-sharing agreement that will last for five years. Trump could try to renegotiate it, but there is cross-party support in South Korea to reject demands that are seen as excessive.
During his first term, Trump suspended large-scale military exercises with South Korea to pave the way for talks with Kim Jong-un. The North Korean leader has demanded that US nuclear forces be removed from the peninsula, and Trump could undermine the expanded deterrence measures if he seeks to resume talks with Kim.
What about South Korea’s nuclear ambitions?
Opinion polls have shown that a majority of South Koreans have long supported the country acquiring nuclear weapons. Support has grown amid concerns that a future Trump administration could weaken the long-standing alliance.
But the declaration of martial law has raised questions about control over the South Korean military and whether it can be entrusted with a nuclear arsenal. It remains to be seen what might happen to the Nuclear Advisory Group and how Trump might use the newly formed body.
What does this mean for North Korea?
The timing has been good for Pyongyang, which is due to hold a key policy meeting in late December to set its policy for the coming year. It has ignored Yun’s call for talks and his “bold initiative” to offer massive aid in exchange for giving up nuclear weapons. North Korea likes to drive wedges between Washington and its allies, and Yun’s weakening could make it easier for Kim to negotiate directly with Trump.
Kim’s rule has also been bolstered by his support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Washington and Seoul say Pyongyang has received aid from Moscow that has stabilized parts of the sanctions-hit North Korean economy, as well as technology that has aided its military program.
Who is Yun Seok-yeol?
Yun is a former prosecutor who rose to national prominence investigating corruption in the government of then-President Moon Jae-in, who held the office before Yun took over. Yun is a political novice whose first attempt at national elected office was as a presidential candidate, winning by the narrowest margin in the country’s history. Yun made several gaffes during the campaign, including statements that appeared to defend former President Chung Doo-hwan, a military man responsible for violently suppressing the pro-democracy uprising in Gwangju in 1980.
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