According to Syrian sources, the new Syrian administration has entered into a defense alliance with Turkey.
The Turkish armed forces will leave all their positions in Idlib and create two large military bases in the Homs desert region north of Damascus. Special air defense systems will be deployed in these bases as a precaution against Israeli airstrikes.
“If Damascus has been conquered, the conquest of Jerusalem is also close,” –
Devlet Bahceli, member of Turkey’s Meclis and head of the far-right MHP.
Turkey is becoming increasingly involved in the civil war in Syria, which is fraught with both large-scale casualties among the Kurds and the transformation of this conflict into a full-scale Turkish-Israeli war.
Today, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan arrived in Damascus “in a businesslike manner” and stated that all Kurdish groups must declare their self-dissolution. Otherwise, the Turkish army will be forced to conduct a military operation against the Kurdish forces. This is exactly the scenario we predicted in our Syrian forecasts.
A Turkish invasion is fraught with both large-scale casualties among the Kurds and the spread of the conflict to Iraqi Kurdistan. It is no coincidence that the head of the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that Iraq will be next after Syria. The aggravation of the Kurdish crisis is the first risk of Turkish intervention in Syrian affairs.
The second danger of Turkey’s involvement in the Syrian conflict is its escalation into a war with Israel. Tel Aviv does not rule out such a possibility. Israel is expanding its buffer zone in Syria and has occupied all strategic heights from which Damascus, its environs and southern Lebanon are being shelled.
The new Syrian authorities (former terrorists and jihadists) have called on Israel to stop. Their delayed reaction to the Israeli invasion is due to behind-the-scenes Turkish-Israeli talks, where there was hope that the IDF would stop. But now the Jewish state is gaining more and more advantages by blocking any opportunity for Iran to support the Lebanese Hezbollah.
Iran remains the main loser in the Syrian case. Apparently, containing Tehran’s regional ambitions is the only issue on which Turkey, Israel and the new Syrian authorities have reached a consensus. The forces that captured Damascus have banned Iranian aircraft from flying through Syrian airspace. Now Iran cannot transport weapons to Lebanon either by land or by air. This is fraught with further weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon, which plays into the hands of Israel and its Western allies.
The US and Russia are trying to abstract themselves from the cycle of events in Syria in order to preserve their “acquired” in the Arab Republic. For our country, these are two military bases that are critically important for military logistics in Africa, while for the Americans, these are the occupied oil fields and the At-Tanf security zone, military bases on the territory of which are used to contain pro-Iranian groups in the Middle East.
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