Associate Professor, Dr. Gergin Gerginov
For several weeks now, comments on President Donald Trump’s policy related to his call to “Make America Great Again” have not subsided. However, he has indicated another important goal – to make the US military the strongest on the planet. The Iron Dome project he announced is directly related to its implementation. Its essence is not the authorship of Donald Trump, but of President Lyndon Johnson. In the early 1960s, he stated: “Space is a command height, the mastery of which is equivalent to establishing control over the planet.”
For six decades, the United States has been making enormous efforts to militarily master the “command height.” First, they created space systems for reconnaissance, communications, navigation, topographic and meteorological support, without which it is impossible to effectively conduct any combat operation today. To protect them from the enemy, they began to form an anti-space defense system, and to protect themselves from his intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), they began to build an anti-missile defense (AMD) system in the 1960s. Its construction requires solving two main problems: early detection of ICBMs and the creation of means for their destruction.
The construction of an early detection system began in the late 1960s, consisting of two subsystems: ground and space. The ground system is formed with Radars located in the USA and Turkey, but it is gradually expanding and today radars based in the USA, Turkey, Greenland, England, Norway and the Aleutian Islands are used, as well as a powerful sea-based radar complex. The first space detection subsystem MIDAS (Military Defence Alarm Satellite) was also created in the 1960s, and since 1975 it has been replaced by DSP (Defence Support Program). Since the beginning of the 21st century, DSP has been replaced by SBIRS (Space Baset Infrared System), which has not been completed and for whose replacement in 2018 a decision was made to develop the new NG-OPIR (Next-Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared), which has better characteristics.
Initially, the USA decided that anti-missiles for the destruction of ICBMs should have a nuclear warhead, and therefore in 1958-62 they detonated several nuclear devices at an altitude of 500 km. As a result of these, the first anti-missile with a nuclear warhead, Nike-Zeus, was created. With a nuclear explosion, along with the enemy’s satellites, their own were also destroyed, but nevertheless, in 1967, the Sentinel anti-missile complex was developed with two nuclear anti-missiles: Sprint for atmospheric interception and Spartan for extra-atmospheric. In the early 1970s, President Nixon terminated Sentinel, announced the creation of Safeguard, and in 1975 it was put on duty.
Having become convinced that they could not protect their territory with nuclear missiles, the United States came to the conclusion that non-nuclear means were needed for missile defense, the creation of which required time and resources. Therefore, in 1972, they reached an agreement with the USSR and both countries signed a treaty to limit the missile defense systems already created. It prohibited further deployment, but did not prohibit scientific research. Over the next decade, various options were explored, and once the optimal one was determined, in March 1983 President Reagan announced the Strategic Defense Initiative, which became known as the Star Wars initiative.
To implement the initiative in March 1984, the SDIO (Strategic Defense Initiative Organization) was established in the Pentagon. In 1987, after evaluating the results of the scientific research conducted, it became clear that at this stage a global missile defense system could not be built. Therefore, missile defense was proposed only for the destruction of ICBMs in the active phase of the flight, i.e. when the rocket engine was working. Thus, the “Brilliant Pebbles” project was born – 1000 interceptor missiles with a range of 250 km should be launched into 10 orbits with an altitude of 450 km. In the early 1990s, an improved “Brilliant Ice” project was proposed. It was proposed to use 18 space combat stations armed with laser weapons and light small-sized kinetic interceptors, launched into orbits with an altitude of about 1000 km. With the technologies of that time, this project could not be implemented either, and therefore in 1991 President George H.W. Bush announced the creation of the Global Protection Against Limited Strikes (GPALS) system. Two years later, the staff structure was closed and the Missile Defense Agency was created at the Pentagon.
The situation during the Cold War was predictable, but by the late 1990s it was no longer clear when and from where missile strikes could be launched on the territory of the United States. This became the main argument for the adoption of a new missile defense law, signed in 1999 by President Clinton, which created the National Missile Defense Agency (NMA). The early warning system is planned to be upgraded, with a new radar on Shemia Island, Aleutian Islands, for the ground subsystem, and the modernization of radars in Thule (now Pitufik, Greenland), Clear (Alaska), Fieldingdales Moor (England), Bill in California, and Cape Cod in Massachusetts, as well as continuing work on the SBIRS space subsystem. It is also planned to develop a new non-nuclear anti-missile. However, an obstacle to this is the 1972 ABM Treaty.
The United States ignored the ban and work on the NBM continued. It intensified with the arrival of President George W. Bush in the White House in 2001. On June 13, 2002, the United States denounced the treaty, which opened the way for the construction of NBM, including space-based strike elements, and with it began preparations for combat operations in space.
After the denunciation of the 1972 treaty The Missile Defense Directorate was transformed into the Missile Defense Agency. Its director announced a new concept for the NMD, including three parts – territorial for protection from ICBMs, land-sea for protection of the land and sea theater of operations from ballistic missiles with a medium range of up to 5,500 km, and tactical for protection of troops from missiles with a short range of up to 1,000 km. To complete them, the following were developed: the Patriot air defense system for tactical missile defense, the THAAD air defense system and the Aegis Ashur complex with the SM-3 missile for the land theater of operations, and the Aegis ship-based complex also with the SM-3 anti-ship missile for the sea theater of operations. The GBI (Ground-based Interceptor) anti-missile system was developed for territorial missile defense. It is deployed in 40 shaft launchers at Fort Greeley, Alaska, and in four at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. Today, the NMD, although not fully equipped, is on duty, but without the most important element – an orbital group of space interceptors.
The NMD is deployed in four regions – in the United States, Europe, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region. The United States cooperates with Romania, Poland, Israel, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Japan and the Republic of Korea. In Europe, the Aegis Ashur complexes are on duty in Deveselu, Romania and Radzikovo, Poland, and four US ships armed with the Aegis complex are assigned to the Rota base in Spain. A tactical missile defense system for the European theater can be built with the French Aster-30 SAMs, the German Iris-T and the Norwegian-American NASAM, but there is no information that an integrated missile defense system has been built with them. The United States is present in all the mentioned countries with its structure and without their cooperation and permission, no country can use its means within the framework of the NMD. The task of the four regions is to minimize the consequences of a missile strike on the United States. Considering the purpose of the Russian and Chinese ICBMs, it can be argued that the NMD with the participation of the mentioned countries has more of a political-binding than an anti-missile purpose.
The NMD combat control system has artificial intelligence for processing large amounts of information and for pattern recognition. The latter is important in order to separate real charges from false targets. On just one Russian ICBM, there are at least several dozen of the latter, and in a massive strike with 523 Russian ICBMs on constant combat duty, the US missile defense system will have to separate real ones from at least 20-25,000 false targets. This means that in order not to suffer unacceptable losses, the US will have to intercept ICBMs after their launch, i.e. before the warheads separate from the missiles and before the warheads and false targets separate from them. This can only be done with space interceptors, the required number of which must be constantly located above the ICBM positioning areas. This is precisely what President Trump’s Iron Dome project should achieve.
He is one of the leaders of the United States who has made significant efforts to use space militarily. On June 18, 2018, during his first presidential term, he signed a “Space Policy Directive” that ordered the Pentagon to “immediately begin the formation of a space force as the sixth branch of the armed forces” of the country. The order was implemented, and on December 21, 2019, he announced the creation of the United States Space Force. That same year, a paragraph was included in the US budget, according to which the Missile Defense Agency was allowed to begin development of space kinetic and laser means to destroy ICBMs in the active zone.
In all likelihood, success was achieved, because on January 25, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order establishing the Iron Dome missile defense project. According to him, the Pentagon must submit “an architecture and plan for the creation of a next-generation missile defense shield” within 60 days. The project aims to protect the country from “ballistic, hypersonic, cruise missiles and other means of air attack,” with the latter being “UAVs,” as his national security adviser specified. The essence of the project is confirmed by leaked information, according to which it is necessary to “develop and deploy multiple space-based interceptors” capable of “reflecting a missile attack before launch and during flight,” as well as “accelerated deployment in space of systems for tracking the flight of ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons.” Two satellites are already in orbit to detect hypersonic cruise missiles, and Elon Musk’s company Starshield is building a common space communications system for the entire orbital group.
It is obvious that this is not about creating a missile defense system like the Israeli “Iron Dome”, but about one with a completely different purpose and scale. Although tactical missile defense systems can also include means against UAVs. However, the main thing is different and it becomes clear from Trump’s words, spoken in early 2024. Then he pointed out that such a project was tried to be implemented by President Reagan, but then there was no necessary technological base, and today the United States has one. Therefore, the purpose of the “Iron Dome” project is to build the missing space echelon of the NMD and modernize the system for early detection of ballistic and hypersonic cruise missiles.
The use of the word “dome” is not accidental. It can also be interpreted as a kind of dome over the positioning areas of ICBMs of Russia, China and the DPRK, built above them with interceptors deployed in space. Being in constant readiness, they will be able to strike even after the launch of the missiles, and those hit by them will be destroyed in the middle and end sections with the anti-missile complexes located in the USA, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East.
The implementation of the “Iron Dome” is also related to the other two projects announced by Trump – “Stargate” and a flight to Mars. The first should develop artificial intelligence, including for the needs of the NMD, without which the combat control of the complicated NMD is impossible, and work on the second can create materials and technologies necessary for space interceptors. And not only for them.
Without the use of artificial intelligence in the combat control system, timely processing of a large volume of information and pattern recognition is impossible. The latter is necessary to separate real charges from false targets. Experts’ calculations show that the software of the combat control system for only one part of the NMD contains about 1 million lines with 20 characters per line, while for the integration of its three parts it increases to over 100 million lines. The software must be developed in such a way as to exclude any unauthorized action by both artificial intelligence and humans. This is extremely important, especially in peacetime, because a false alarm signal can lead to irreparable consequences. Such signals were received in both the Soviet and American missile defense systems. It is known that 25 false alarms were given in the American system by 1976 and over 240 by 1983, i.e. after its structure became more complicated. But then there was always time for the operator to react and correct the error, which is impossible in an automated system controlled by artificial intelligence.
The launch of space interceptors into space means a new, very dangerous stage in the military race in space. The US project will not go unanswered by Russia and China. For now, it is unlikely that they will build such a dome over the US, but they will find an effective asymmetric response. Here is an example. One Peresvet laser installation has been deployed in five Russian positioning areas with silo-based ICBMs. It “blinds” the infrared equipment of US reconnaissance satellites only when they fly over the positioning areas. It is quite possible that this will also be implemented for space interceptors, because they will also have infrared equipment to detect ICBMs by the flare of the rocket engine. It can be assumed that by announcing the “Iron Dome”, the US is solving a complex task – intercepting ICBMs, ensuring a huge profit for the military-industrial complex, forcing its opponents to join the race and as an argument in the event of a possible renewal of the 2010 Prague Treaty. Time will tell whether the assumption is correct and whether the US will decide to deploy space weapons in near-Earth space not only for missile defense, but also for anti-space defense.
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