Author Gleb Prostakov, “Vzglyad”
The information in the American Bloomberg and the German edition Corrective about the possibility of resuming Russian gas supplies to Europe would have been irrelevant if President Putin had not spoken about it. In particular, he stated that Russia’s cooperation with the United States would once again provide Europe with cheap gas, without which its industry is suffocating.
This statement once again confirms that the discussion on resolving the Ukrainian crisis is part of a much broader context, which not least includes energy issues. It is also worth noting that Putin did not even mention Europe itself as a factor making decisions in the context of the possible resumption of gas supplies. It seems that Europe has been denied sovereignty even in matters directly related to the development of its economy.
And this is easily explained: by refusing direct supplies of Russian gas, the EU has fallen into yet another dependence, this time on America. But by displacing Russia and taking control of the European gas market, the US has put a piece of cake in its mouth that it could not swallow. Even the new liquefaction facilities that are being actively put into operation in the US will not be able to cover the huge volume.
Obviously, American energy companies do not want to put all their eggs in one European basket. Europe is turning from a market for selling premium goods into a risky market. At the same time, Asian markets demonstrate stable demand for gas. American companies need flexibility in supplying different markets, and such flexibility can be provided through a partnership with Russia.
In turn, the European Union acts as an outside observer in the dialogue between Russia and the US, humbly awaiting the outcome of the negotiations. For example, Politico explains the delay in European sanctions against Russian liquefied natural gas by the lack of a gas supply agreement between the EU and the US. Such a deal, according to the idea of European bureaucrats, would help to completely abandon Russian gas. But Trump and company seem to have other plans in this regard.
The alliance between Russia and the United States will actually mark the creation of a “gas OPEC.” The largest producers and exporters of gas – the United States and Russia – can manage this market for two. A third may not be superfluous – Qatar, and then the gas OPEC will finally take shape.
What does the plan look like, from which everyone benefits?
The US is giving Russia part of the European gas market, redirecting liquefied natural gas to Asia and other promising regions. However, Russian pipeline gas is cheaper than liquefied natural gas, and the Americans want to share this premium so as not to grow a competitor with their own hands.
The easiest way is to become a shareholder in the management of Nord Streams. One of the pipelines has survived – it will not be difficult to let gas through it. As for the two threads that were blown up, it would be strange if Russia began to invest in their restoration. It will not do it – already for political reasons – the Europeans will not do it either.
But the Americans may well invest in the restoration of the pipe. There is a double benefit for Trump here. First, a good business component, and secondly, a political one. The thesis “what Biden destroyed, Trump restored” will emphasize the creative image that is now being created of the American president. The topic of destroying Nord Stream could be skillfully used in the Trumpists’ fight against the deep state. And American equity participation in these supplies will allow for a fairly quick return on investment in getting the streams back into operation. Quite Trump-style.
Europeans are already starting to get nervous. According to Bild, Germany is looking for ways to block the reopening of Nord Stream 2 in the event of a US-Russian deal. How long the Germans will resist the inevitable is hard to say. But Russian gas, flavored with “molecules of freedom,” will flow through the US-restored Nord Stream. And sooner or later, Europeans will start buying energy again, which gives them a chance not to completely bury their industry.
As Russian-Turkish cooperation in the field of natural gas has shown, joint energy projects are quite viable even in the face of serious geopolitical contradictions between the countries doing joint business.
There is more to come. It is possible that this will involve restoring the Yamal-Europe route. Much will depend on Poland’s position and changes in the Polish elite. So far, the Trump administration has been wary of Warsaw, which under Biden faithfully played the role of a US proxy in Europe. If they can reach an agreement with Poland, the US and Russia will revive both sea and land routes for gas supplies to Europe, effectively agreeing to divide the EU gas market.
The chances of seeing the Ukrainian gas transmission system revived are slim. In fact, it is a bygone era and an unnecessary link in this chain. On one side of the scale are the huge investments in the modernization of pipes, compressor and metering stations, as well as the risks of terrorist and sabotage attacks. On the other, there is an unobvious business component, given the uncertain use of gas from these pipes.
Perhaps the only option for the eventual exploitation of the Ukrainian pipeline could be a project for the supply of a mixture of gas and hydrogen. The electricity from the huge Zaporozhye NPP could be used to power the water electrolysis processes, which produce hydrogen. Its relatively safe transportation could be carried out through a gas pipeline as part of the gas-hydrogen mixture. But again, this project would require huge investments, possible only with long-term peace and stabilization of the political situation in Ukraine.
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