{"id":80117,"date":"2025-03-03T09:32:25","date_gmt":"2025-03-03T09:32:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/omegatv.online\/?p=80117"},"modified":"2025-07-02T07:44:10","modified_gmt":"2025-07-02T07:44:10","slug":"on-the-brink-of-a-multipolar-world-indias-grand-strategy-is-largely-defined-by-china-analysts-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/omegatv.online\/en\/on-the-brink-of-a-multipolar-world-indias-grand-strategy-is-largely-defined-by-china-analysts-say\/","title":{"rendered":"On The Brink Of A Multipolar World, India’s Grand Strategy Is Largely Defined By China, Analysts Say"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Authored by Venus Upadhayaya via The Epoch Times<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article is the second in a series titled \u201cIndia: The Next Five Years.\u201d Conversations with subject experts, thought leaders, innovators, strategists, and diplomats will explore India\u2019s foreign relations and its global outlook from 2024 to 2029.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

India, the world\u2019s fastest-growing economy, is also growing in its understanding of itself<\/strong>. As it does so, its \u201cgrand strategy\u201d\u2014the way it views its place in the world\u2014is largely defined by China, experts say.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>The Indian flag is seen flying at the High Commission of India in Ottawa on Sept. 20, 2023. The Canadian Press\/Patrick Doyle<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cChina looms increasingly large in India\u2019s strategic consciousness<\/strong>,\u201d writes Dhruva Jaishankar in his recently released book<\/a>, \u201cVishwa Shastra: India and the World.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIndeed, China\u2019s rise is likely the primary factor influencing India\u2019s grand strategy today.<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cVishwa Shastra,\u201d is a Sanskrit phrase that means \u201ctreatise on the world.\u201d The book offers a consolidated, linear analysis of Indian foreign policy from ancient to modern times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jaishankar, who serves as executive director of the Washington-based Observer Research Foundation, told The Epoch Times in an exclusive interview that there are broadly five objectives to India\u2019s \u201cgrand strategy.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cStrengthening India at home, militarily and economically, is [the] number one priority. [Second is] ensuring a stable neighborhood, which has been a big challenge, but the neighborhood has always, again, been a first priority internationally,\u201d Jaishankar said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maintaining a balance of power is India\u2019s third priority. The fourth is to address legacy issues concerning India\u2019s partition, which led to the formation of Pakistan and created larger regional consequences. The fifth is to advocate for India\u2019s adequate participation in global rule-making institutions, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These five objectives have largely defined India\u2019s grand strategy since its independence in 1947. <\/strong>Today\u2019s India has more opportunities and resources to achieve these objectives than it has ever had before, according to Jaishankar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIndia is less on the defensive than in the past. It has more resources than in the past. So that\u2019s good in many respects. It has an ability to modernize. It has an ability to settle some of the issues in its periphery. It has the ability to bypass and isolate Pakistan and things like that.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Articulating India\u2019s Grand Strategy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Srikanth Kondapalli, dean of the School of International Studies at New Delhi\u2019s Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), told The Epoch Times that every major power has a grand strategy that defines its trajectory, looking out 20 to 25 years.<\/strong> Along with its planning for economic, technological, and military development, the grand strategy details a country\u2019s national ethos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An expert on China\u2019s foreign and security policies, Kondapalli said how much of a nation\u2019s grand strategy is disclosed depends upon the purpose ascribed to it by that nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFor example, the Americans have the [Quadrennial] Defense Review and national security strategy<\/strong>.  … The Russians have a strategy like this<\/strong>. The UK has one<\/strong>. China also articulated it in terms of national rejuvenation by 2049<\/strong>, and they have several steps\u2014from up to 2021 up to 2035,\u201d said Kondapalli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India\u2019s grand strategy has rarely been explicitly articulated, and various authors have attempted to express the country\u2019s vision. Jaishankar\u2019s work attempts to define India\u2019s global impact, exactly 25 years away from the mid-century world. The mid-century is also the timeframe of China\u2019s grand strategy of national rejuvenation, sometimes dubbed \u201cGlobal China 2049\u201d or \u201cChina 2049.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kondapalli cited \u201cIndia 2020,\u201d a 1998 work by India\u2019s former president, A.P.J. Abdul Kalam and Y. S. Rajan. The book outlined a strategy for a developed India looking at the first two decades of the new millennium.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has expressed Indian strategy as \u201cViksit Bharat 2047.\u201d The phrase \u201cViksit Bharat,\u201d which means \u201cdeveloped India,\u201d conveys the Indian government\u2019s vision to transform the country into a self-reliant and prosperous economy by 2047.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kondapalli described the areas defined under Viksit Bharat 2027 as \u201csoft areas of the grand strategy.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, many of India\u2019s security-related issues are kept guarded and undisclosed, he said. A number of the undisclosed areas concern China.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Biggest Obstacle\u2014China<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite its possibilities, India faces many challenges to the achievement of its grand strategy. Looming large among them is China, which analysts define as a major challenge to India\u2019s rise on the world stage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geography and history provide the context for the challenge from China. That\u2019s according to Monish Tourangbam, director of the India-based Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSince its inception in 1949, the Sino\u2013Indian war of 1962 and its rise as a global power in the 21st century, communist China has influenced the conception and operationalization of India\u2019s grand strategy,<\/strong>\u201d Tourangbam told The Epoch Times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jaishankar said China challenges each of India\u2019s grand strategy objectives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe biggest obstacle in each of these five objectives today, arguably, is China.<\/strong> So China is the biggest obstacle to India\u2019s defense procurement, its technology policy, its trade policy, its industrial policy,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kondapalli said that since 2009, India has viewed China as a \u201clong-term threat\u201d to its strategic plans. He defined a short-term threat as one within a timeline of five years, a medium-term as 15 years, and long term as one with a timeline of about 35 years.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It was in 2009 that the Indian position shifted to fighting a two-front war\u2014meaning against Pakistan and China\u2014\u201cunder the nuclear threshold,\u201d he said, \u201cbecause both are nuclear.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBut this is the armed forces strategy, rather than national strategy,\u201d he said, adding that India faces tremendous challenges from China from all other fronts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kondapalli said that within India\u2019s grand strategy, the China factor is \u201cuncertain or even negative\u201d due to its territorial dispute with India. He said this dispute is long-term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis is not going to be resolved [in the short term]. So you have to factor China in the territorial dispute in the grand strategy,<\/strong>\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jaishankar cited active competition from China in India\u2019s neighborhood\u2014in countries such as Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. Meanwhile, the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific has also been altered by China\u2019s rise. India is working with other countries to counter that, he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even in international institutions, China is trying to block India\u2019s ascent, he noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cChina is ultimately the main power most responsible for blocking, say, U.N. Security Council reform, India\u2019s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group on certain trade issues, and things like that. There is a conflict of interest<\/strong>,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India\u2019s role in global institutions is increasing. Throughout its 2023 presidency of the Group of 20 (G20) international forum, it played a crucial role in an expanded BRICS and in other platforms of global governance, according to Tourangbam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, China is using a two-pronged approach to challenge that increasing influence, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cChina\u2019s challenge to India\u2019s rise in global institutions is both ideational and material<\/strong>,\u201d Tourangbam said. India\u2019s democracy and its inclusive model of global governance make it appealing, he said. However, China\u2019s sheer economic size and influence are a challenge for New Delhi to navigate in global institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s grand strategy is to be number one: to replace the United States, in particular. Beijing also wants to be number one in Asia, Kondapalli said. But there are powers in Asia\u2014India, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam\u2014that can compete for that influence and do not want China to mitigate their footprint.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cChina\u2019s role in South Asia, Southeast Asia, where it wants to marginalize India, is not acceptable to India,\u201d he said. India\u2019s grand strategy will thus include countering the Chinese grand strategy vis-a-vis territorial issues and competition in Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are many elements of the strategy, he noted. One element is the QUAD alliance between India, the United States, Japan, and Australia in the Indo-Pacific. Another is Exercise Malabar\u2014joint maritime military exercises between the QUAD countries. Another element is the individual Free Trade Agreements between India and various nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And yet another is the recent Modi\u2013Trump meeting. Of that, Kondapelli said, \u201cwhat transpired we don\u2019t know.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Looking Toward a Multipolar World<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

With its rapid economic growth, India is forecast to be the world\u2019s third-largest economy by 2030, behind the United States and China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jaishankar described three global schools of thought\u2014unipolarity, bipolarity, and multipolarity\u2014viewed from the perspectives of the three likely leading global economies over the next two decades: the United States, China, and India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The academic terms describe three systems of geopolitical power distribution.<\/strong> A unipolar world is dominated by one power; a bipolar world is dominated by two major powers, and in a multipolar world, power is distributed among several states. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

India\u2019s grand strategy needs to be understood in the context of expectations that it will make the list of top global powers in the near future, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The United States \u201cis number one,\u201d Jaishankar said. \u201cIn an ideal world, the U.S. wants a unipolar world. It has a pure competitor in China today.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, China\u2014despite its long-term ambition for a unipolar world in which it is number one\u2014acknowledges the bipolarity of today\u2019s world. Its ambition to be the leading global power does not contradict that acknowledgment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhen China says it wants a new type of great power relationship or talks of avoiding the Thucydides Trap, it is actually acknowledging a bipolar world, but asking the U.S. not to contest it,\u201d Jaishankar said. The Thucydides Trap is the theory\u2014popularized by Harvard scholar Graham Allison\u2014that when a rising global power threatens a ruling one, war frequently results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Further, \u201cIndia, being number three, wants a multipolar [world],\u201d he said. \u201cSo I think part of it just depends on where they sit.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While China supports multilateralism on certain issues and forums, Tourangban said, its support is aimed at blunting America\u2019s influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India, on the other hand, aims to create a more inclusive global order, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIndia wants to create an externally conducive security environment for its economic rise, and its support for a multipolar world order recognizes the interdependence of economies. Expanding its basket of economic partners, without jeopardizing its core security interests, lies at the heart of India\u2019s support for effective multilateralism in a multipolar world<\/strong>,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With India\u2019s imminent rise as the third largest global economy, a new global economic paradigm will evolve, according to Jaishankar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. economy is currently worth over $30 trillion. The Chinese economy is worth over $19 trillion. India is currently the fifth-largest global economy. It is expected to steal Japan\u2019s fourth-place spot in the next year or so. And, according to a report from S&P Global Ratings, by 2030, India is expected to surpass $7 trillion and become the world\u2019s third-largest economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nonetheless, \u201cthere [will] be a big gap between the U.S. and China, on the one hand, and between China and India on the other,\u201d Jaishankar said. There will also emerge a big gap between India and everyone else on that list, he said. But precisely by virtue of that gap, India will play a leading role in a multipolar world, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The situation will secure a unique place for India, Jaishankar said. India will guard that place to prevent its interests from being marginalized in decision-making by the United States and China. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIndia will strive for a more multipolar world, which means a world where everything is not simply decided by the U.S. and China. I think that\u2019s a great, good concern for India,<\/strong>\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How India will secure and advance its interests in a multipolar world order will be a \u201ctest of fire\u201d for India\u2019s grand strategy, said Tourangbam.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

India\u2019s Role in World Order<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

When asked what role India would play in facilitating a multipolar world, Jaishankar listed a number of objectives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those include taking a leadership role in Southeast Asia, securing the Indian Ocean, connecting with its neighbors and with the Middle East, and using \u201ccarrots and sticks\u201d to coax Pakistan away from supporting terror groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They also include managing India\u2019s relationship with China in a way that promotes competition but doesn\u2019t lead to conflict, according to Jaishankar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Delving into this further, Kondapalli explained that India\u2019s approach to multilateral forums is led by its interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both India and China are a part of various common multilateral forums. It\u2019s assumed that they are not there to discuss bilateral issues or sovereignty issues, he said. Instead, their involvement implies that problems can be resolved through confidence-building measures and peaceful strategies.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Multilateral forums can be useful for advancing bilateral issues. Kondapalli cited a subtle approach by India on multilateral platforms\u2014one example being the meeting between Modi and China\u2019s Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan last year.  The two leaders decided to let their national security advisers discuss their territorial dispute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAnd then we saw some forward momentum in this regard<\/strong>,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jaishankar emphasized that India\u2019s thought leadership in a multipolar world would involve working with balancing powers, like the United States, Japan, Australia, and others, to \u201cdiversify and strengthen\u201d supply chains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It would also mean countering China by diversifying Indian strategic interests. Having many strategic or economic partners would ensure that if China threatened to cut off supply chains or investment, it would not unduly affect India, he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Authored by Venus Upadhayaya via The Epoch Times This article is the second in a series titled \u201cIndia: The Next…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":80118,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[50,54],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-80117","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-international","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/omegatv.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80117","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/omegatv.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/omegatv.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/omegatv.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/omegatv.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80117"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/omegatv.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80117\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":80119,"href":"https:\/\/omegatv.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80117\/revisions\/80119"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/omegatv.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/80118"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/omegatv.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80117"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/omegatv.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80117"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/omegatv.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80117"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}