Kersten Knip, DW
In July and August 2024, the ice of the Arctic Ocean broke under the steel of three heavy icebreakers: Xuelong 2, Ji Di, and Zhong Shan Da Xue Ji Di. The three ships rehearsed an unimpeded passage through the Arctic Ocean. But it was an act of mostly symbolic significance: Beijing wanted to show that China was present and would remain present in the Arctic for the long term. And the message was heard. “The Arctic is becoming Chinese,” wrote the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti in October 2024.
China has been in the Arctic for a long time, says Michael Paul, a maritime security expert at the Berlin-based think tank Foundation for Science and Politics (SWP) and the author of several studies on the geostrategic importance of the Arctic and China’s presence there. “China has been very active in the region since the early 2000s, especially in Iceland. But then Beijing faced stiff resistance from Denmark and the United States.” Both countries feared excessive Chinese influence, Paul said. “Beijing then turned to other countries in the region — and especially Russia. But it has been weakened by the war in Ukraine and is now increasingly playing the role of China’s junior partner in the Arctic.”
The show of presence in the Arctic comes against a backdrop of climate change, which is particularly visible in that part of the world. The average annual temperature in 2024 was about 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial times, and according to the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, the Arctic region is warming four times faster than the rest of the planet. As a result, the Arctic ice cap is melting faster and faster. If it decreases significantly by 2040, as is predicted, three new shipping routes from the Pacific to the Atlantic or vice versa will likely emerge, allowing existing routes to be shortened – in some cases significantly.
Three new sea routes
One of these routes, the so-called Northeast Sea Route, which runs along the Russian coast, is already being developed by China and Russia as a route for trade and raw materials. “In particular, this involves transporting gas from the Yamal Peninsula in Western Siberia to China,” says political scientist Klaus-Peter Saalbach of the University of Osnabrück. He is the author of a study on the geostrategic importance of the Arctic. However, this route is still very little used at the moment. “Only a few dozen ships pass through it every year,” he says.
The Northwest Sea Route, which runs along the coast of Canada, is even more difficult to navigate. It is considered significantly more difficult to navigate than the Northeast Route. “The US Congressional Research Service doubts that it will ever be commercially viable,” says Saalbach. It would also become a political challenge for Russia and China, since “part of it passes through areas that Canada considers its territorial waters, meaning Ottawa has the right to regulate shipping there,” the expert adds.
Given the rapid melting of the ice, it can be predicted that the so-called transpolar sea route will open in the summer months. It crosses the Arctic Ocean directly and is therefore easier to navigate. At the same time, it is also the shortest route across the sea. “Iceland, for example, could play the role of a transshipment port on this route,” says Saalbach. “China has already built a huge embassy in Iceland, which speaks of a strong Chinese presence in the future. Iceland, for its part, is reaching out to the EU, but also to Russia and China.”
Trump, Greenland and Panama
US President Donald Trump is currently flirting with the idea of bringing Greenland under US control, a project he has pursued since his first term and which has been in line with US policy since World War II.
In effect, China and Russia’s cooperation on the Northern Sea Route amounts to the two countries controlling which other countries will be able to use the Arctic route in the future, says Michael Paul. “It is therefore understandable that this could trigger an allergic reaction in Trump. He also did this with the Panama Canal, whose two ports at the entrance and exit were controlled by Chinese companies. However, they have now been sold to an American consortium. Japan and South Korea also want to use the Northern Sea Route in the future, but they do not want to be dependent on Russia or China,” he added.
Many mineral resources
At the same time, melting ice makes it easier to extract the region’s rich mineral resources. According to a 2008 study by the US Geological Survey (USGS), about 30% of the world’s undiscovered natural gas reserves and 13% of undiscovered oil reserves are located in the Arctic. Greenland is rich in rare earth elements, which are needed to produce high-tech products such as smartphones, electric motors and batteries. The Arctic also contains metals, diamonds, coal and uranium. “All this is intensifying the competition for the region,” says Saalbach.
However, extracting them is associated with considerable difficulties, says Michael Paul of “Science and Politics” – it has to be done under extreme climatic conditions and requires logistics that currently almost do not exist. “In Greenland, some deposits turned out to be less profitable than initially thought,” he recalls, adding that the dispute over the rights to exploit resources in some areas of the Arctic has also not been resolved.
The military dimensions of the issue
The Arctic is also very interesting from a military point of view. Since it is the shortest connection between Russia and North America, in the event of an attack, Russian missiles would fly over the Arctic. At the Thule Air Base, now renamed the Pitufik Space Base, the US has an early warning system for possible missile attacks from Russia or other regions. It also serves as a supply and refueling station for US and NATO aircraft.
There, they will also have to prepare for a growing Chinese presence in the region. For example, in 2015, five Chinese warships passed through the 12-mile zone off Alaska, and since 2021, warships sent by Beijing have been present in the zone regularly. In 2022, the US recorded a flotilla of Russian and Chinese ships almost 100 miles from Kiska Island, which belongs to Alaska – including a destroyer equipped with Type 055 Nanchang guided missiles, hypersonic anti-ship missiles and capable of carrying up to 112 cruise missiles.